AILA met with Charlie Oppenheim (the Department of State Employee in charge of the Visa Bulletin and determining Visa availability) on February 15th of this year. Below is some of the information Charlie gave us.
According to Charlie, despite the high usage of this category, he is now expecting it to remain current for the Worldwide numbers. However, as stated previously, he still feels that there will be cut off date imposed for China and India. In contrast to his earlier prediction of having a cut off date imposed by June or July, he now believes it will be in August (or, perhaps, not at all). Demand for EB-1s from Indian and Chinese persons has declined from October/November. If this demand increases again, this may change.
EB-2 and EB-3 for China:
EB-2 will go up about 1 month next month, but EB-3 dates will move forward about 5 monhts. This will put EB-3 for China about 15 months ahead of EB-2. Demand for EB-3 is increasing, and the biggest increases usually occur in April and May, so there wil most likely be a retrograde in EB-3 for China at that time.
EB-2 and EB-3 for India:
EB-2 will move forward about 1 month. As long as there is not significantly higher deman from EB-3 upgrades to EB-2, Charlie sees EB-2 for India moving forward about 1 month every month.
EB-2 and EB-3 Worldwide:
EB-2 is expected to remain current. EB-3 will continue progressing quickly as demand is still low in this category.