May 2020 Visa Bulletin and Guidance from Mr. Oppenheim are out

UnknownThe biggest news this month is that the EB-1 category came current for Most Countries (but not all).  Additionally, the EB-2 category remained current.  Otherwise, there was movement but not much in terms of surprises.  Mr. Oppenheim did ensure us that the Visa Bulletin is being processed based upon the same infomration in the past during this difficult time.  However, as he is working remotely, he did not have access to the necessary databases when talking with AILA this month, so was unable to make precise predictions.  Details are below:

Family Based Categories

F1: Moved forward almost three months to March 22, 2014 for most of the World EXCEPT  Mexico (moved forward about 1 month October 22, 1997) and the Philippines (moved forward 6 months to September 1, 2010).

F2A: Remained Current for the World.

F2B: Moved forward two and a half months to January 15, 2015 for most of the World EXCEPT  Mexico (moved forward about one and a half months to January 15, 1999) and the Philippines (moved forward 4 months to June 1, 2010).

F3: Moved forward about one and a half months to March 15, 2008  for most of the World EXCEPT  Mexico (moved forward one month to June 8, 1996) and the Philippines (moved forward 6 months to November 15, 2000).

F4: Moved forward about three weeks to July 22, 2006 for most of the World EXCEPT  India (moved forward about 2 weeks to January 8, 2005), Mexico (moved forward about 1 month to April 15, 1998) and the Philippines (moved forward 5 months to October 1, 2000.

UPDATE FROM DOS:

Mr. Oppenheim stated that all family categories should continue to move forward consistent with his projections last month.

Employment-Based Preference Categories

EB-1:  is now CURRENT for most of the world EXCEPT China (moved forward about 1 month to  July 15, 2017) and India (moved forward about three months to August 1, 2015).

EB-2:  Stayed Current for most of the world EXCEPT China (moved forward about 1 month to September 15, 2015) and India (moved forward about one week to June 2, 2009).

EB-3:  Stayed BACKLOGGED to January 1, 2017 for most of the world EXCEPT China (moved forward one month to May 15, 2016) and India (moved forward over one month to March 1, 2009).

UPDATE FROM DOS:

No further predictions were given this month. Hopefully Mr. Oppenheim can get us this information next month.

Please contact us with any questions or concerns.  And please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

Upcoming Executive Order Regarding Immigration

images-1_FotorAs most, if not all, of you, have heard, our President is preparing an executive order to limit immigration into the United States.  At this time, as the order has not been finalized, we cannot say what the impact will be on individual cases.  Below is a list of what we have heard may, or may not, be included in the order:

  1. The reports are that it will only place limits on immigrant visas (definitely affecting consular processing and, maybe affecting the adjustment of status in the US as well).  It is reported that it will not affect non-immigrant visa issuance.
  2. The reports are that the immigration halt will be in place for 60 days and then will be re-evaluated.
  3. There have been reports that it will only apply to employment-based cases and will not affect family-based cases.
  4. There have been reports that there will be other exceptions as well for essential employees, which could include health care workers, researchers, farmworkers, and, perhaps, others.

So far, the above is all we know, and even that is not certain because there is no actual draft of the order as of yet.  We will update you once the order is finalized and we have more facts.

Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

March Visa Bulletin Update – EB2 Remains current but EB3 Backlogged

UnknownThis past month’s Visa Bulletin had some bright spots and not so bright spots.  The biggest news is that the EB-2 category remained current and most likely will remain current next month as well.  Additionally, the EB-3 category was backlogged worldwide – and will most likely remain that way for the rest of the fiscal year (and, hopefully come back to current in October of this year).  Details are below:

Family Based Categories

F1: Moved forward almost a month and a half to October 8, 2013 for most of the World EXCEPT  Mexico (moved forward about 3 weeks to September 15, 1997) and the Philippines (moved forward 5 months to September 1, 2009).

F2A: Remained Current for the World.

F2B: Moved forward just over three weeks to September 15, 2014 for most of the World EXCEPT  Mexico (moved forward about 1 month to October 15, 1998) and the Philippines (moved forward 5 months to October 1, 2009).

F3: Moved forward about 3 week to December 15, 2007 for most of the World EXCEPT  Mexico (moved forward about 2 weeks to April 8, 1996) and the Philippines (moved forward 5 months to October 1, 1999).

F4: Stayed at July 1, 2006 for most of the World EXCEPT  India (moved forward about 2 weeks to December 8, 2004), Mexico (moved forward about 1 month to February 15, 1998) and the Philippines (moved forward 5 months to December 1, 1999).

UPDATE FROM DOS:

F2A demand has evened out and a cutoff is no longer certain – this category may just continue to remain current.

F4 While the Philippines has seen rapid forward movement in this category (as well as all others) Charlie believes it will not last and more demand will materialize requiring a halt to progress and perhaps a retrogression as well (in ALL categories for the Philippines).

Employment-Based Preference Categories

EB-1:  Moved forward about 3 months to March 1, 2019 for most of the world EXCEPT China (moved forward about 1 week to  June 1, 2017) and India (moved forward about 2 months to March 1, 2015).

EB-2:  Stayed Current for most of the world EXCEPT China (moved forward about 1 month to August 15, 2015) and India (moved forward 3 days to May 22, 2009).

EB-3:  BACKLOGGED to January 1, 2017 for most of the world EXCEPT China (moved forward almost 2 months to March 22, 2016), India (moved forward 1 week to January 15, 2009) and the Philippines (is now at worldwide levels).

UPDATE FROM DOS:

EB-1:  Based on currently available information, it remains possible–yet too early to confirm–that this category could become current in the summer of 2020.  According to Charlie as long as usage remains steady in March, there will be a sizable jump in April.

EB-2:  Charlie notes that demand for EB-2 Worldwide numbers continues to trend in such a way that a final action date may be imposed at some point during the second half of FY2020.  Charlie believes that this will be necessary by June of 2020, if not earlier.

EB-3:  This category has now retrogressed for worldwide numbers – there is not much chance that it will move forward much until the new fiscal year in October of 2020.

Please contact us with any questions or concerns.  And please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

February Visa Bulletin and Update from DOS

UnknownOnce again the EB-2 category has remained current despite the projections that there could be a backlog (although, as you will see below, we are not yet out of the woods on the EB-2 retrogression as of yet).  Below are the movements in most Family and Employment categories as well as an update from Charlie Oppenheim of the Department of State on probable movement in the near future.

Family Based Categories

F1: Moved forward a little over a month to August 22, 2013 for most of the World EXCEPT  Mexico (moved forward about 2 weeks to August 22, 1997) and the Philippines (moved forward 2.5 months to April 1, 2009).

F2A: Remained Current for the World

F2B: Moved forward almost two weeks to August 22, 2014 for most of the World EXCEPT  Mexico (moved forward about 3 weeks to September 15, 1998) and the Philippines (moved forward 3 months to May 1, 2009).

F3: Moved forward about 1 week to November 22, 2007 for most of the World EXCEPT  Mexico (moved forward about 3 weeks to March 22, 1996) and the Philippines (moved forward 4 months to May 1, 1999).

F4: Moved BACKWARD about 8 months to July 1, 2006 for most of the World EXCEPT  India (moved forward about 2 weeks to November 22, 2004), Mexico (moved forward about 1 weeks to January 15, 1998) and the Philippines (moved forward 4 months to July 1, 1999).

UPDATE FROM DOS:

F2A will see a backlog in the coming months.  Charlie is not quite sure when, but it will occur.

F4 retrogressed due to a dramatic increase in demand for this category.  Expect this new date to be held for the next several months.

Employment-Based Preference Categories

EB-1:  Moved forward about 1 month to December 1, 2018 for most of the world EXCEPT China (held at May 22, 2017) and India (stayed at January 1, 2015).

EB-2:  Stayed Current for most of the world EXCEPT China (moved forward about 1 week to July 15, 2015) and India (moved forward 1 day to May 19, 2009).

EB-3:  Stayed Current for most of the world EXCEPT China (moved forward 1 month to January 1, 2016), India (moved forward 1 week to January 8, 2009) and the Philippines (moved forward about 2.5 months to June 1, 2018).

UPDATE FROM DOS:

EB-1: In February, the final action date for EB-1 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) advances two months to December 1, 2018. Based on currently available information, it remains possible–yet too early to confirm–that this category could become current in the summer of 2020.

EB-2:  Charlie notes that demand for EB-2 Worldwide numbers continues to trend in such a way that a final action date may be imposed at some point during the second half of FY2020.

EB-3:  Charlie notes that EB-3 Worldwide and EB-3 Other Workers Worldwide will become subject to a final action date in March 2020. Charlie will determine what that date will be upon receipt of data from USCIS in February 2020.

Please contact us with any questions or concerns.  And please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

November Visa Bulletin and an Update From Charlie Oppenheim

UnknownBefore discussing the visa bulletin for November, I just wish to apologize for the absence of posts in the last couple of months.  In the future I shall make sure that there are no more long pauses such as the one that occurred and will ensure that I am able to get out relevant information to all my readers in a timely manner.  Thank you.

The November Bulletin had some movement (mostly) in both Family and Employment Categories.  Let’s take a look at employment categories first.  Please do note that were dates are given for “All Other Countries” this includes not just that general category, but all other individually listed countries that are at the same dates (such as El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras – which are listed out separately but track with All Other Countries in most instances).

Employment Based Cases

EB-1: This category moved from April 22, 2018 to June 1, 2018 for All Other Countries.  For China, it moved forward from November 1, 2016 to February 1, 2017 (quite a jump) and for India there was no movement as it stayed at January 1, 2015.  According to USCIS Dates for Filing may be used for this category – this means that those in the US may file their I-485 if the priority date of the I-140 is before July 1, 2019 for All Other Countries, September 1, 2017 for China and March 15, 2017 for India.

EB-2: This category remained Current for All Other Countries.  China moved forward from January 1, 2015 to March 15, 2015.  India went from May 12, 2009 to May 13, 2009. According to USCIS Dates for Filing may be used for this category – this means that those in the US may file their I-485 if the priority date of the I-140 is before August 1, 2016 for China and July 1, 2009 for India.

EB-3: This category remained current for All Other Countries.  China and India both had no movement – China staying at November 1, 2015 and India staying at January 1, 2009. According to USCIS Dates for Filing may be used for this category – this means that those in the US may file their I-485 if the priority date of the I-140 is before  March 1, 2017 for China and February 1, 2010 for India.

Family Based Cases

FB-1: This category moved forward from January 15, 2013 to March 1, 2013 for All Other Areas.  Mexico stayed at August 8, 1997 and the Philippines moved froward from July 1, 2008 to September 15, 2008. 

FB-2A: This category remained Current for ALL Countries.

FB-2B: This category moved forward from June 1, 2014 to July 8, 2014 for All Other Countries.  Mexico moved forward from August 1, 1998 to August 22, 1998.  The Philippines moved forward from September 1, 2008 to October 1, 2008.

FB-3: This category moved forward from September 15, 2007 to October 15, 2007 for All Other Countries.  Mexico had no movement, staying at February 22, 1996 and the Philippines moved forward from April 1, 1998 to June 1, 1998.

FB-4: This category moved forward from November 22, 2006 to January 1, 2007 for All Other Countries.  India moved forward slightly from October 1, 2004 to October 15, 2004 while Mexico had no movement, staying at December 15, 1997.  The Philippines moved forward from July 8, 1998 to September 1, 1998.

According to USCIS Dates for Filing should be used for all categories EXCEPT for FB-2A (which is current under Final Action Dates, but actually has a cut-off for Dates for Filing).  The Dates for Filing are generally a couple months ahead of the dates listed above (which are the Final Action Dates).  Please contact us if you have any questions in this regard.

UPDATE FROM CHARLIE OPPENHEIM

Family Based Cases

For family based cases, the F2A Final Action Date, which became current in July 2019, remains current across all countries for November. This trend has been surprising because Charlie expected that there would be a surge in demand which would have required imposition of a Final Action Date no later than January. The demand for F2A across countries remains extremely low, with applicants not responding to the agent of choice letters, and at this time there is no indication that a date will need to be imposed in the near future.

Employment Based Cases

EB-1:  You should expect to see the EB-1 categories advance at up to three months for Worldwide  and China, and little if any forward movement for India.  India will not advance for some time since there is already significant number use and pending demand in that category (17% usage already for Q1).    Overall usage in this category (For Worldwide numbers), however, shows lower demand than previous years.  If this low demand trend continues, then EB-1 (for All Countries other than India and China) could return to Current at some point later in the year.

EB-2:  EB-2 Worldwide remains current for November and is expected to remain current for the foreseeable future.   Charlie is starting to see an increase in upgrades from EB-3 India to EB-2 India, with the numbers requested so far in October most likely being attributable to upgrade requests.

Given that the Final Action Date for EB-3 China (November 1, 2015) is eight months ahead of EB-2 China, it is likely to prompt downgrades which could take the pressure off of EB-2 China demand, causing that category to advance.

EB-3:  The EB-3 category bears watching as we continue to move into Q2 of the fiscal year and beyond. Charlie is very surprised at the high level of numbers used in this category this fiscal year as well as pending demand for this category, noting that it is significantly higher than it has been in the past to the tune of thousands. Nevertheless, Charlie still expects EB-3 Worldwide to remain current through at least January.  EB-3 China is receiving a high level of downgrade requests, with 300 requests in October alone.  If this trend continues it will limit the advancement of EB-3 China while potentially increasing the rate of advancement for EB-2 China.  Expect little to no movement for EB-3 India.

 

Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you. 

Charlie Oppenheim Updates his Predications for Movement of Immigration Visa Numbers

Charlie Oppenheim updated his predictions on the movement of immigrant visa numbers for the foreseeable future. I will detail some of the highlights below, however, please do remember that these are just predictions from Mr. Oppenheim and they can change depending on what the actual demand in any given category actually materializes.

EB-1

 

While Charlie previously thought there would not be movement forward until next year, it now appears that next month (December) should see forward movement on the Worldwide numbers as well as for India and China. Charlie is still not sure how far forward they will move, so we will need to wait for next month to see what happens. He does caution, however, that Worldwide numbers will not become current in the foreseeable future, and this will probably be the norm for at least the first half of the fiscal year.

EB-2 + EB-3

 

Based upon current demand, China numbers will continue to move forward as they did for the November bulletin. On the other hand, EB-3 for China is seeing high demand right now. At the moment EB-2 China is only about 2 weeks ahead of EB-3 China. It is possible that the EB-2 date will pass the EB-3 date soon. However, Charlie is not sure if the current EB-3 demand is based upon downgraded EB-2s. If this is the case, then the forward movement of EB-2 dates could be affected by this phenomena.

For India, the EB-2 numbers and EB-3 numbers held steady in November, and it is projected that there will be little , if any, advancement in December for the EB-2 numbers. However the EB-3 usage is lighter, and there should be forward movement of a few weeks (or even months) in December.

 

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p dir=”auto”>If you have any questions, please call or email me. Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.