The June Visa Bulletin has been released by the Department of State. EB-2 numbers for India remain at Sept. 1, 2004. This is in line with the predictions of the DOS that these numbers would not progress at all for India in the near future. For China the date is now July 15, 2008. A modest movement of about 2 months for China.
For EB-3 numbers most countries are now up to Sept. 1, 2008, a big jump. However, the Department of State cautions that once more demand surfaces, they will stop making such big jumps in the EB-3 numbers. India is at January 8, 2003 and the Philippines is at Sept. 22, 2006 – both of which are big jumps as well.
Rep. Goodlatte (R) held a press conference this morning regarding immigration reform efforts underway in the Senate. While he stated that he welcomed such efforts, he also stated that the House Judiciary committee would be looking at Immigration differently. The House will be dividing the legislation into separate bills so that Representatives can review and look at each aspect of immigration reform separately, as opposed to having one take it or leave it bill. According to Rep. Goodlatte, the first two bills will be introduced tomorrow and will concern the agricultural worker program and mandatory e-verify provisions. It should also be noted that Rep. Goodlatte does not support providing legal status to the thousands of people in the US without status at this time.
Considering Rep. Goodlatte’s previous stands on immigration, and considering the fact that the Senate, at this time, most likely will not consider piecemeal legislation, I think that this move makes it less likely that we will actually see immigration reform anytime soon. While I sincerely hope that I am wrong, and I hope that this can be worked out, I am not as hopeful as I was even yesterday. The primary issue is the fact that when each piece is separate, there is no guarantee that once one part is passed, the other parts will also be passed. In other words, if the House passes mandatory e-verify, what is to stop Republicans at that point from voting against the pathway to citizenship, even if they previously agreed to support it? I really see this move more as a way to end the immigration debate rather than as a way to move it forward. The only hope I see is that there can be some compromise whereby the senate agrees to modify the bill somewhat in return for having it pass as one bill. At this point, only time will tell.
It is important to keep in mind that the bill introduced in the Senate the other day is just that, a bill. Until it is passed by both the House and Senate and signed by the President, it is not the law. While it is somewhat instructive to discuss what is in the bill, and what it all means, it is much to early in the process to be planning your life around what may happen.
Why do I say this? Primarily because the House has yet to weigh in on the bill and what they have stated so far gives me cause to pause. What have they stated? That they are optimistic that the House and Senate can get together and pass a bill. Sounds good so far right? They then go on to say that in the coming days they will put forth their own bill and work with the Senate to iron out any differences. This is where I have problems. The Senate was barely able to compromise on what they have. If the House now changes things, even moderately, I think that things could end in an impasse. While time will tell, until the House version is out and vetted, I would not plan my life around what may happen in this regard.