Charlie Oppenheim Updates his Predications for Movement of Immigration Visa Numbers

Charlie Oppenheim updated his predictions on the movement of immigrant visa numbers for the foreseeable future. I will detail some of the highlights below, however, please do remember that these are just predictions from Mr. Oppenheim and they can change depending on what the actual demand in any given category actually materializes.

EB-1

 

While Charlie previously thought there would not be movement forward until next year, it now appears that next month (December) should see forward movement on the Worldwide numbers as well as for India and China. Charlie is still not sure how far forward they will move, so we will need to wait for next month to see what happens. He does caution, however, that Worldwide numbers will not become current in the foreseeable future, and this will probably be the norm for at least the first half of the fiscal year.

EB-2 + EB-3

 

Based upon current demand, China numbers will continue to move forward as they did for the November bulletin. On the other hand, EB-3 for China is seeing high demand right now. At the moment EB-2 China is only about 2 weeks ahead of EB-3 China. It is possible that the EB-2 date will pass the EB-3 date soon. However, Charlie is not sure if the current EB-3 demand is based upon downgraded EB-2s. If this is the case, then the forward movement of EB-2 dates could be affected by this phenomena.

For India, the EB-2 numbers and EB-3 numbers held steady in November, and it is projected that there will be little , if any, advancement in December for the EB-2 numbers. However the EB-3 usage is lighter, and there should be forward movement of a few weeks (or even months) in December.

 

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p dir=”auto”>If you have any questions, please call or email me. Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

Checkin With Charlie Oppenheim on Visa Numbers

Charlie Oppenheim, the officer at the Department of State in charge of visa numbers and the Visa Bulletin, recently released an update to his predictions for the upcoming months. Below is a summary of some of that update.

Family Based Visa Numbers

According to Charlie, in September most of the family-based categories will likely hold or retrogress from where they are in August. Only F-4 Worldwide has the potential to advance in September. Charlie expects a full recovery from retrogressions in all of the family-based categories in October, with the exception of F-4 China and F-4 India which will take some time. Beginning in November 2015, beneficiaries of F-4 China and F-4 India started responding to NVC Agent of Choice letters in larger numbers, which has given Charlie better visibility into the demand in these categories, but ultimately resulted in the retrogression of these cut-off dates.

It should be noted that when we state that there will be a “full recovery” Charlie is not saying that the categories will become current, but that they will go back to their pre-August 2015 dates.

Employment Based Visa Numbers

CHINA:

The Final Action date of January 1, 2010 that was imposed in June for both EB-2 and EB-3 China remains the same in August with no forward movement in either of these categories expected this fiscal year (which ends on September 30, 2016).

EB-2 should recover partly in October, 2016 and should fully recover to its previous dates by the end of this calendar year.

INDIA:

EB-3 India should advance modestly into a 2005 Final Action date in September. EB-2 India will continue to track one week ahead of the EB-3 India Final Action date in September.

EB-2 will advance in October 1, 2016 with the new fiscal year, and should fully recover by December of this year.

WORLDWIDE:

EB-3 Worldwide has been hovering close to “current” for some time, and is expected to do so through at least October.

Eb-2 was retrogressed in August to February 1, 2014 with the hope of holding number use to within the EB-2 annual limit. That date should hold in September and is expected to fully recover to “current” in October.

July 2016 Visa Bulletin and Check-In with DOS

Unknown.jpegThe Department of State (DOS) released the July visa bulletin recently and Charlie Oppenheim, the person at the DOS who is in charge of the visa bulletin also updated the American Immigration Lawyer’s Association on what further movement or backlogs can be expected in the near future.

For family based cases, there was not much movement at all.  Below is a table showing the movement.

Family Based All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed China – Mainland Born India Mexico Philippines
F1 2 Months 2 Months 2 Months 2 Weeks 1 month
F2A 1 Week ! Week ! Week None 1 Week
F2B 2 Weeks 2 Weeks 2 Weeks None 1 Month
F3 None None None None 1 Month
F4 1 Month None None None 1 Month

For employment based, there was also not a lot of movement.  Again, the movement and new dates are listed below:

 

Employ.

Based

All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed China – Mainland Born India Mexico Philippines
1st C C C C C
2nd C None (Jan 1, 2010) 1 Month (Nov 1, 2004) C C
3rd 2 Weeks (Mar 1, 2016) None (Jan 1, 2010) I Month (Oct 22, 2004) 1 Month (Oct 22, 2004) 3.5 Months (Feb 15, 2009)

In terms of future movements, we will look at family based categories first.

FB4- China: For China, the FB-4 category just recently retrogressed and will remain at its current date through July, and perhaps through the rest of the fiscal year (it will depend on usage for FB-1 through FB-3).  However it will return to the prior cut off date by November of this year.

FB-4 India:  Similar to FB-4 China, FB-4 India recently tracked the FB-4 Worldwide final action date until it retrogressed in June. However, unlike FB-4 China, the final action date for FB-4 India will definitely remain at January 1, 2001, through September. Mr. Oppenheim predicts that FB-4 India will advance to the former July 2003 cutoff date early in the next fiscal year, but expects that recovery to happen more slowly than for FB-4 China. Mr. Oppenheim anticipates that the FB-4 India date will reach late 2002 for October, and may fully recover to July 2003 by the end of the calendar year.

Moving on to employment based categories:

EB-2 and EB-3 China:   There will be no forward movement in these categories for the rest of this fiscal year (the fiscal year ends on September 30, 2016).  We will have to see what the new fiscal year brings, but hopefully there will be forward movement shortly after the new fiscal year.

EB-2 and EB-3 India:  There may be some moderate movement forward in September, but it depends (see next category)

EB-2 Worldwide:  It is looking increasingly likely that this category will become unavailable in September.  However, since the new fiscal year begins October 1, they will, again, become current on that date.

EB-1 for India and China:  Similar to EB-2 Worldwide, these categories will most likely become unavailable in September but go back to current in October.

If you have any questions leave a comment below or send me an email.  Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

June 2016 Visa Bulletin is Out

In the last week, the Department of State released the June, 2016 visa bulletin,  USCIS has announced which tables they will utilize for this month and Charlie Oppenheim, the Department of State employee in charge of immigrant visa numbers, issued guidance for the coming months.   Below is a summary of the relevant points for all three of these documents.

Family Based Cases

There was some slight forward movement in some categories, but not much.  The largest movement was a backlog in the F4 category (Brothers and Sisters of US Citizens) for India and Chine.  India dropped from 2003 to 2001, and there is little hope of forward movement until the next fiscal year.  There has been high demand across the board in this category, and this is what is causing the retrogression.  China went back to January of 2013, about a seven month retrogression.  Again, high demand has caused the retrogression, but, in the case of China, there may still be some forward movement this fiscal year – depending on usage.

Employment Based

EB-1:  While EB-1 remains current across the board, it should be noted that there us unusually high usage of EB-1 numbers this fiscal year.  According to a recent update by Charlie Oppenheim this may result in corrective action later this fiscal year.

EB-2:  China will retrogress to January 1, 2010 (as will China EB-3).  Since EB-2 and EB-3 for China will be at the same date for the rest of the fiscal year (most likely) this should stop the upswell of downgrades from EB-2 to EB-3.

India is also retrogressing, but much more severely.  India will be at October 1, 2004.   There is a large amount of usage for EB-2’s in general, meaning that there most likely will not be any “unused” numbers for other countries that could be given to India.  This, in conjunction with the number of EB-3 cases that have moved up to EB-2s, has led to this need for retrogression.  However, Charlie Oppenheim, in his latest update, said this date could move forward if more EB-3 India cases are adjudicated, alleviating the burden of older EB-3 priority dates moving up to EB-2.

It does not appear that the EB-2 worldwide category will be retrogressed at this time.

EB-3:  As stated above, China has retrogressed to 2010.  India, on the other hand, moved forward slightly to September 22, 2004.

Worldwide held steady at February 15, 2016.  Charlie did not indicate anything about what the future holds for EB-3 Worldwide numbers.  If  we get an update on this we will certainly let you know.

USICS

USCIS has, once again, decided that the final action table should be used for both Family based and Employment based green cards.  This is frustrating to not only attorneys and their clients, but also to the Department of State.  The only way they can get a good handle on what the actual backlogs are for both EB-2 India and China and EB-3s for everyone, is if those in the backlog are able to file their adjustment of status applications.  If USCIS would utilize the Dates for Filing Table, it would give DOS the visibility they need to accurately predict usage and would prevent these wildly swinging priority date movements.  Alas, USCIS does not look like they will employe these dates any time soon.  This is unfortunate and shows that USCI was not serious about reforming the current visa processing, as if they were, they would at least explain why they are failing to utilize the Dates for Filing and helping the DOS get more visibility into these issues.  We will certainly update you if there is any change in this area.

If you have any questions leave a comment below or send me an email.  Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

October Visa Bulletin and Check in With the Dept. of State

Because of the new format of the Visa Bulletin, it will be easier for me to break these updates into two sections:  Section 1 will discuss the Final Action Date; and, Section 2 will discuss movements in the Dates for Filing section.

Final Action Date Movements:

Family Based:  Most categories moved forward somewhere between 1-2 months.  Some of the categories for the Philippines, etc. moved forward a little more than that (up to six months) but that was only in a couple of categories.

Employment Based:

EB-1:  Still current for everyone

EB-2:  Big move in China (which we had indicated could happen as early as October) from 2006 to January 1, 2012.  Unfortunately, India went the opposite way – from January 1, 20016 to May 1, 2005.

EB-3:  Most of the world stayed at August 15, 2015, however there was movement for certain countries.  China, once again, moved forward rapidly to October 15, 2011 (from 2004) and the Philippines moved from December 22, 2004 to January 1, 2007.  Unfortunately, once again, India retrogressed somewhat, going from December 22, 2004 to March 8, 2004.

Other Workers:  Again, most of the world stayed at August 15, 2015, the Philippines and India saw the exact same movement in this category as was stated above for the EB-3 category.  China progressed from January 1, 2004 to January 1, 2006

Dates for Filing

As this is the first month for this new section, we will just look at what the dates are.  Also, every month at the beginning of this section I will indicate whether USCIS is accepting Adjustment of Status Applications based upon this date (they are going to make this decision on a monthly basis).  It is also important to remember that the dates in this category are based upon the Department of State’s prediction of where the Final Action Dates will move within the next year.

For the Month of October USCIS will accept I-485 application based upon this date.

Family Based:  Most categories have a Date for Filing about 1 year or so ahead of the Final Action date.  A good example is the F2A (Spouses and Children of Permanent Residents).  The Final Action Date is April 15, 2014 and the Date for Filing is March 1, 2015.

Employment Based:

EB1:  As with the Final Action Date this is current for all countries

EB2:  This is more interesting.  While most countries are current, India and China are backlogged in this category.  China, for the final action date, is in 2012, but the Date for filing is at May 1, 2014.  So anyone from China with an approved or pending I-140 in the Eb-2 category with a priority date on or before May 1, 2014 (and in the US legally) can file their I-485 come October 1, 2015.

More interestingly, India, which saw their Final Action Date actual go backwards to 2005, has a Date for Filing of July 1, 2011.  As stated above, this means that the DOS feels that they will be getting close to this date in the next year or so.

EB3 and Other Workers:  This is at September 15, 2015 (about 1 month ahead of the Final Action Date) for most of the world.  Exception are India, which is at July 1, 2005 (meaning there will not be much movement in this category for India over the next year), China, which is at October 1, 2013 for the EB3 category and January 1, 2007 for the Other Worker Category, and the Philippines, which is at January 2, 2015 for both categories (again, foreshadowing that there will be good movement in the Final Action date in these categories for the Philippines in the next year).

Check in With Charlie Oppenheim

The American Immigration Lawyers Association had its monthly check in with Mr. Oppenheim, the person at the DOS who is in charge of setting the above dates.  Basically, they just reviewed the new format of the Visa Bulletin with him.  However there was one item worth mentioning. When discussing what, if any impact, the Dates for Filing would have on the Final Action Dates, Mr. Oppenheim felt there would be little change except that By having USCIS allowing the filing of the I-485 based upon the Dates for Filing will give the DOS a better grasp of the actual numbers of applicants out there waiting for immigrant visas.  This will result in less wild swings in the dates and more steady movements forward (hopefully).

Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

August 2015 Visa Bulletin and Guidance from DOS on future Movement

Last week the August 2015 visa bulletin came out.   While there were not many major changes, there are some worth noting.

First, in terms of family based numbers, most categories moved forward about 1 month for All Other Countries.  Numbers for Mexico, China, India and the Philippines either stayed at the same date or move forward slightly.  The person at the DOS in charge of Visa Numbers, Charles Oppenheim, did issue guidance saying that the F2A category – Spouses of Permanent Residents, which has been moving forward fairly steadily, would continue to do so for the foreseeable future because of lack of demand.

Moving to employment based, there is more to report:

EB-2:  Most of the world is current for EB-2 except India and China.  India remained in 2008, but China continues its forward movement to December 15, 2013, a jump of 2.5 months.  Mr. Oppenheim says that China will most likely move forward again in September (or, at the worst, hold steady).  India will not move forward.

EB-3:  This category saw the biggest changes.  Worldwide numbers moved forward to July 15, 2015, a jump of 3 months.  Mr. Oppenheim projects that this number will move forward again in September, but he may hold it steady in October and November just to see if additional demand appears.  For China, EB-2 when from 2011 back to 2004, a retrogression of 7 years. According to Mr. Oppenheim, this is because unused family numbers for China that he had been predicting would fall down to the EB-2 category are not materializing (i.e. more family based visas are being used than he thought).  Therefore he had to backlog China.  However he does feel that forward movement (and moving China back to 2011) will happen in October.

Any question?  Please feel free to contact me.  Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

CBP Starting a new Pilot Program to Change Incorrect I-94 Information via Email

EvHelpI94

For those of you who have had issues with incorrect information on your I-94 in the past, you understand the difficulties you have to go through to get it corrected.  Generally, you have had to go back to the port of entry, hope that someone can see you in a timely manner, and then have them give a new I-94.  The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency has just started a pilot program to allow certain individuals to send requests to change the I-94 via email as opposed to having to go to the port of entry in person.

The pilot program allows all such requests stemming from entries in (or from people residing in) certain areas of Texas.  In addition, the pilot is only going to be running until January, 2016.  Hopefully this pilot will be expanded and, eventually will become permanent so that those entering the US will not have to spend money to fix errors made by CBP officers at a point of entry.

We will update you as more information is made available.