Immigrant Visas – Immigration Briefs

EB-2 Worldwide Numbers May Become Backlogged In The Coming Months

The Department of State, in the November 2022 Visa Bulletin, included the following in its list of possible future changes in the visa bulletin:

Increased demand in the Employment Second category may necessitate the establishment of a worldwide final action date in the coming months to hold number use within the maximum allowed under the Fiscal Year 2023 annual limit. This situation will be continually monitored, and any necessary adjustments will be made accordingly.

Unfortunately, this means it is very likely that the EB-2 category (which includes employer-sponsored immigrant visas for those with a Master’s Degree or higher and those filing a National Interest Waiver) will backlog in the coming months. We do not know precisely when, and most likely, it will not be until the beginning of next calendar year, but we will have to keep a close eye on the visa bulletin in the coming months.

One point of interest is that DOS indicates that the “final action date” may retrogress. This could mean that the “dates for filing” date could remain current. It would then be up to USCIS to determine which dates they will use to allow the filing of the I-485. For those who may not remember, or be familiar with, the different dates used by the DOS: The “final action dates” table lists the dates for each immigrant visa type for which an immigrant visa is available (this date needs to be current for the I-485 or consular processing case to be approved); The “dates for filing” table lists the dates for each immigrant visa type for which the Department of State thinks that the “final action date” will be at within the next 6-12 months (it is the table used by the Department of State to determine when to begin the consular processing part for each case type). Each month USCIS indicates which table it will use to determine if a potential immigrant can file an I-485 application in a particular immigrant visa category.

If the EB-2 Worldwide numbers do retrogress (and remember, right now, this is just a warning from DOS, not a sure thing), it would also have an impact on the EB-2 numbers for China and India, considering that they will not be able to use any unused numbers from the worldwide visa numbers to help keep those dates where they are, or progress them. It may mean that those countries’ dates retrogress even further.

Those looking at filing an I-485 based on their EB-2 filing or approval should do so as soon as possible to ensure that they will not be locked out of filing the I-485 by retrogression. If you have questions or would like to set up an appointment with us to discuss the filing of the I-485 in your case, please use the following link: https://bit.ly/3NwfebH

Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

May 2022 Visa Bulletin Released – Not Much Movement

The biggest take away from this months Visa Bulletin is that there was little, if any movement for any category, except some forward movement for India EB–2 cases. See Below for details.

Family Based Visa Dates

FB1 – Adult Children (unmarried) of US Citizens: This category stayed at Dec 1, 2014 for All Other Areas, China and India. It stayed at January 1, 2000 for Mexico and March 1, 2012 for the Philippines

FB2A– Spouses and children of US Permanent Residents: This category remained current for all areas of the world.

FB2B – Adult Children (unmarried) of US Permanent Residents: This category stayed at September 22, 2015 for All Other Areas, India and China. It stayed at January 1, 2001 for Mexico and October 22, 2011 for the Philippines.

FB3 – Adult Children (married) of US Citizens: This category stayed at November 22, 2008 for All other Areas, China and India. It stayed at September 15, 1997 for Mexico and at June 8 2002 for the Philippines.

FB4 – Siblings of US Citizens: This category stayed at March 22, 2007 for All Other Areas, China and India. It stayed at January 1, 2000 for Mexico and at August 22, 2002 for the Philippines

Employment Based Visa Dates

EB–1: Remained Current for the entire world

EB–2: The Final Action Dates remained Current for Everywhere, and remained at March 1, 2019 for China. The final action date progressed from July 8, 2013 to September 1, 2013 for India. The Dates for Filing (which may be used) for China remained at April 1, 2019 for China and progressed from September 1, 2014 to December 1, 2014 for India. Despite the fears that India may retrogress, India, in fact, moved its dates forward. However, this category could retrogress for India at any time.

EB–3: For Final Action Dates, there was no movement anywhere – most of the world remained Current, China remained at March 22, 2018 and India remained at January 15, 2012. Likewise, for the Dates for Filing (which may be used) everything remained the same, April 1, 2018 for China and January 22, 2012 for India.

Unfortunately there was no guidance from Charlie Oppenheim on the projections for what the dates will do in the future. If that is forthcoming we will let you know as soon as we hear.

Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

September Visa Bulletin Summary

Overall dates are moving forward, but there are some noticeable categories that are lagging behind and not progressing as much, this includes Employment Based Third Preference which doesn’t move forward at all this month. Below is a summary of movement in most categories

Family Based Categories

F1: Moved forward one months to September 15, 2014 for most of the World EXCEPT Mexico (moved forward about 2 weeks to January 8, 1998) and the Philippines (moved forward 3.5 months to December 15, 2011).

F2A: Remained Current for the World.

F2B: Moved forward one month to July 8, 2015 for most of the World EXCEPT Mexico (moved forward about two weeks to April 8, 1999) and the Philippines (moved forward 4 months to August 1, 2011).

F3: Moved forward about two weeks to June 15, 2008 for most of the World EXCEPT Mexico (moved forward two weeks to August 1, 1996) and the Philippines (moved forward 3 months to February 15, 2002).

F4: Moved forward about three weeks to September 22, 2006 for most of the World EXCEPT India (moved forward about 2 weeks to March 8, 2005), Mexico (moved forward about 1 week to June 22, 1998) and the Philippines (moved forward 4 months to January 1, 2002.

Employment-Based Preference Categories

EB-1: Remains CURRENT for most of the world EXCEPT China and India (moved forward about 1 month to March 1, 2018). Currently India and China are at the same date as they are using the otherwise unused visa numbers from the EB-1 category, as other countries are well below normal usage, as well as visa number falling up from the EB-5 category (i.e. unused visa number from EB-5 fall up to the EB-1 category).

EB-2: Stayed Current for most of the world EXCEPT China (stayed at January 15, 2016) and India (stayed at July 8, 2009). As EB-2 visa numbers are being used and it appears that all visas in this category will be used by the end of the fiscal year, no movement forward was made.

EB-3: Stayed backlogged to April 1, 2019 for most of the world EXCEPT China (stayed at February 15, 2017) and India (stayed at October 1, 2009).

Please contact us with any questions or concerns. And please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

May 2020 Visa Bulletin and Guidance from Mr. Oppenheim are out

Unknown The biggest news this month is that the EB-1 category came current for Most Countries (but not all). Additionally, the EB-2 category remained current. Otherwise, there was movement but not much in terms of surprises. Mr. Oppenheim did ensure us that the Visa Bulletin is being processed based upon the same infomration in the past during this difficult time. However, as he is working remotely, he did not have access to the necessary databases when talking with AILA this month, so was unable to make precise predictions. Details are below:

Family Based Categories

F1: Moved forward almost three months to March 22, 2014 for most of the World EXCEPT Mexico (moved forward about 1 month October 22, 1997) and the Philippines (moved forward 6 months to September 1, 2010).

F2A: Remained Current for the World.

F2B: Moved forward two and a half months to January 15, 2015 for most of the World EXCEPT Mexico (moved forward about one and a half months to January 15, 1999) and the Philippines (moved forward 4 months to June 1, 2010).

F3: Moved forward about one and a half months to March 15, 2008 for most of the World EXCEPT Mexico (moved forward one month to June 8, 1996) and the Philippines (moved forward 6 months to November 15, 2000).

F4: Moved forward about three weeks to July 22, 2006 for most of the World EXCEPT India (moved forward about 2 weeks to January 8, 2005), Mexico (moved forward about 1 month to April 15, 1998) and the Philippines (moved forward 5 months to October 1, 2000.

UPDATE FROM DOS:

Mr. Oppenheim stated that all family categories should continue to move forward consistent with his projections last month.

Employment-Based Preference Categories

EB-1: is now CURRENT for most of the world EXCEPT China (moved forward about 1 month to July 15, 2017) and India (moved forward about three months to August 1, 2015).

EB-2: Stayed Current for most of the world EXCEPT China (moved forward about 1 month to September 15, 2015) and India (moved forward about one week to June 2, 2009).

EB-3: Stayed BACKLOGGED to January 1, 2017 for most of the world EXCEPT China (moved forward one month to May 15, 2016) and India (moved forward over one month to March 1, 2009).

UPDATE FROM DOS:

No further predictions were given this month. Hopefully Mr. Oppenheim can get us this information next month.

Please contact us with any questions or concerns. And please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

March Visa Bulletin Update – EB2 Remains current but EB3 Backlogged

Unknown This past month’s Visa Bulletin had some bright spots and not so bright spots. The biggest news is that the EB-2 category remained current and most likely will remain current next month as well. Additionally, the EB-3 category was backlogged worldwide – and will most likely remain that way for the rest of the fiscal year (and, hopefully come back to current in October of this year). Details are below:

Family Based Categories

F1: Moved forward almost a month and a half to October 8, 2013 for most of the World EXCEPT Mexico (moved forward about 3 weeks to September 15, 1997) and the Philippines (moved forward 5 months to September 1, 2009).

F2A: Remained Current for the World.

F2B: Moved forward just over three weeks to September 15, 2014 for most of the World EXCEPT Mexico (moved forward about 1 month to October 15, 1998) and the Philippines (moved forward 5 months to October 1, 2009).

F3: Moved forward about 3 week to December 15, 2007 for most of the World EXCEPT Mexico (moved forward about 2 weeks to April 8, 1996) and the Philippines (moved forward 5 months to October 1, 1999).

F4: Stayed at July 1, 2006 for most of the World EXCEPT India (moved forward about 2 weeks to December 8, 2004), Mexico (moved forward about 1 month to February 15, 1998) and the Philippines (moved forward 5 months to December 1, 1999).

UPDATE FROM DOS:

F2A demand has evened out and a cutoff is no longer certain – this category may just continue to remain current.

F4 While the Philippines has seen rapid forward movement in this category (as well as all others) Charlie believes it will not last and more demand will materialize requiring a halt to progress and perhaps a retrogression as well (in ALL categories for the Philippines).

Employment-Based Preference Categories

EB-1: Moved forward about 3 months to March 1, 2019 for most of the world EXCEPT China (moved forward about 1 week to June 1, 2017) and India (moved forward about 2 months to March 1, 2015).

EB-2: Stayed Current for most of the world EXCEPT China (moved forward about 1 month to August 15, 2015) and India (moved forward 3 days to May 22, 2009).

EB-3: BACKLOGGED to January 1, 2017 for most of the world EXCEPT China (moved forward almost 2 months to March 22, 2016), India (moved forward 1 week to January 15, 2009) and the Philippines (is now at worldwide levels).

UPDATE FROM DOS:

EB-1: Based on currently available information, it remains possible–yet too early to confirm–that this category could become current in the summer of 2020. According to Charlie as long as usage remains steady in March, there will be a sizable jump in April.

EB-2: Charlie notes that demand for EB-2 Worldwide numbers continues to trend in such a way that a final action date may be imposed at some point during the second half of FY2020. Charlie believes that this will be necessary by June of 2020, if not earlier.

EB-3: This category has now retrogressed for worldwide numbers – there is not much chance that it will move forward much until the new fiscal year in October of 2020.

Please contact us with any questions or concerns. And please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

February Visa Bulletin and Update from DOS

Unknown Once again the EB-2 category has remained current despite the projections that there could be a backlog (although, as you will see below, we are not yet out of the woods on the EB-2 retrogression as of yet). Below are the movements in most Family and Employment categories as well as an update from Charlie Oppenheim of the Department of State on probable movement in the near future.

Family Based Categories

F1: Moved forward a little over a month to August 22, 2013 for most of the World EXCEPT Mexico (moved forward about 2 weeks to August 22, 1997) and the Philippines (moved forward 2.5 months to April 1, 2009).

F2A: Remained Current for the World

F2B: Moved forward almost two weeks to August 22, 2014 for most of the World EXCEPT Mexico (moved forward about 3 weeks to September 15, 1998) and the Philippines (moved forward 3 months to May 1, 2009).

F3: Moved forward about 1 week to November 22, 2007 for most of the World EXCEPT Mexico (moved forward about 3 weeks to March 22, 1996) and the Philippines (moved forward 4 months to May 1, 1999).

F4: Moved BACKWARD about 8 months to July 1, 2006 for most of the World EXCEPT India (moved forward about 2 weeks to November 22, 2004), Mexico (moved forward about 1 weeks to January 15, 1998) and the Philippines (moved forward 4 months to July 1, 1999).

UPDATE FROM DOS:

F2A will see a backlog in the coming months. Charlie is not quite sure when, but it will occur.

F4 retrogressed due to a dramatic increase in demand for this category. Expect this new date to be held for the next several months.

Employment-Based Preference Categories

EB-1: Moved forward about 1 month to December 1, 2018 for most of the world EXCEPT China (held at May 22, 2017) and India (stayed at January 1, 2015).

EB-2: Stayed Current for most of the world EXCEPT China (moved forward about 1 week to July 15, 2015) and India (moved forward 1 day to May 19, 2009).

EB-3: Stayed Current for most of the world EXCEPT China (moved forward 1 month to January 1, 2016), India (moved forward 1 week to January 8, 2009) and the Philippines (moved forward about 2.5 months to June 1, 2018).

UPDATE FROM DOS:

EB-1: In February, the final action date for EB-1 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) advances two months to December 1, 2018. Based on currently available information, it remains possible–yet too early to confirm–that this category could become current in the summer of 2020.

EB-2: Charlie notes that demand for EB-2 Worldwide numbers continues to trend in such a way that a final action date may be imposed at some point during the second half of FY2020.

EB-3: Charlie notes that EB-3 Worldwide and EB-3 Other Workers Worldwide will become subject to a final action date in March 2020. Charlie will determine what that date will be upon receipt of data from USCIS in February 2020.

Please contact us with any questions or concerns. And please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

November Visa Bulletin and an Update From Charlie Oppenheim

Unknown Before discussing the visa bulletin for November, I just wish to apologize for the absence of posts in the last couple of months. In the future I shall make sure that there are no more long pauses such as the one that occurred and will ensure that I am able to get out relevant information to all my readers in a timely manner. Thank you.

The November Bulletin had some movement (mostly) in both Family and Employment Categories. Let’s take a look at employment categories first. Please do note that were dates are given for “All Other Countries” this includes not just that general category, but all other individually listed countries that are at the same dates (such as El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras – which are listed out separately but track with All Other Countries in most instances).

Employment Based Cases

EB-1: This category moved from April 22, 2018 to June 1, 2018 for All Other Countries. For China, it moved forward from November 1, 2016 to February 1, 2017 (quite a jump) and for India there was no movement as it stayed at January 1, 2015. According to USCIS Dates for Filing may be used for this category – this means that those in the US may file their I-485 if the priority date of the I-140 is before July 1, 2019 for All Other Countries, September 1, 2017 for China and March 15, 2017 for India.

EB-2: This category remained Current for All Other Countries. China moved forward from January 1, 2015 to March 15, 2015. India went from May 12, 2009 to May 13, 2009. According to USCIS Dates for Filing may be used for this category – this means that those in the US may file their I-485 if the priority date of the I-140 is before August 1, 2016 for China and July 1, 2009 for India.

EB-3: This category remained current for All Other Countries. China and India both had no movement – China staying at November 1, 2015 and India staying at January 1, 2009. According to USCIS Dates for Filing may be used for this category – this means that those in the US may file their I-485 if the priority date of the I-140 is before March 1, 2017 for China and February 1, 2010 for India.

Family Based Cases

FB-1: This category moved forward from January 15, 2013 to March 1, 2013 for All Other Areas. Mexico stayed at August 8, 1997 and the Philippines moved froward from July 1, 2008 to September 15, 2008.

FB-2A: This category remained Current for ALL Countries.

FB-2B: This category moved forward from June 1, 2014 to July 8, 2014 for All Other Countries. Mexico moved forward from August 1, 1998 to August 22, 1998. The Philippines moved forward from September 1, 2008 to October 1, 2008.

FB-3: This category moved forward from September 15, 2007 to October 15, 2007 for All Other Countries. Mexico had no movement, staying at February 22, 1996 and the Philippines moved forward from April 1, 1998 to June 1, 1998.

FB-4: This category moved forward from November 22, 2006 to January 1, 2007 for All Other Countries. India moved forward slightly from October 1, 2004 to October 15, 2004 while Mexico had no movement, staying at December 15, 1997. The Philippines moved forward from July 8, 1998 to September 1, 1998.

According to USCIS Dates for Filing should be used for all categories EXCEPT for FB-2A (which is current under Final Action Dates, but actually has a cut-off for Dates for Filing). The Dates for Filing are generally a couple months ahead of the dates listed above (which are the Final Action Dates). Please contact us if you have any questions in this regard.

UPDATE FROM CHARLIE OPPENHEIM

Family Based Cases

For family based cases, the F2A Final Action Date, which became current in July 2019, remains current across all countries for November. This trend has been surprising because Charlie expected that there would be a surge in demand which would have required imposition of a Final Action Date no later than January. The demand for F2A across countries remains extremely low, with applicants not responding to the agent of choice letters, and at this time there is no indication that a date will need to be imposed in the near future.

Employment Based Cases

EB-1: You should expect to see the EB-1 categories advance at up to three months for Worldwide and China, and little if any forward movement for India. India will not advance for some time since there is already significant number use and pending demand in that category (17% usage already for Q1). Overall usage in this category (For Worldwide numbers), however, shows lower demand than previous years. If this low demand trend continues, then EB-1 (for All Countries other than India and China) could return to Current at some point later in the year.

EB-2: EB-2 Worldwide remains current for November and is expected to remain current for the foreseeable future. Charlie is starting to see an increase in upgrades from EB-3 India to EB-2 India, with the numbers requested so far in October most likely being attributable to upgrade requests.

Given that the Final Action Date for EB-3 China (November 1, 2015) is eight months ahead of EB-2 China, it is likely to prompt downgrades which could take the pressure off of EB-2 China demand, causing that category to advance.

EB-3: The EB-3 category bears watching as we continue to move into Q2 of the fiscal year and beyond. Charlie is very surprised at the high level of numbers used in this category this fiscal year as well as pending demand for this category, noting that it is significantly higher than it has been in the past to the tune of thousands. Nevertheless, Charlie still expects EB-3 Worldwide to remain current through at least January. EB-3 China is receiving a high level of downgrade requests, with 300 requests in October alone. If this trend continues it will limit the advancement of EB-3 China while potentially increasing the rate of advancement for EB-2 China. Expect little to no movement for EB-3 India.

Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

Update from Charlie Oppenheim on Immigrant Visa Availability

Unknown Charlie talked with the American Immigration Lawyers Association again at the end of March. Here are some updates that he gave on potential movements of priority dates in the future. To summarize: EB-1 usage is high, not a lot of movement. EB-2 usage is normal so steady movement. For more details, see below.

Data Used By Charlie and Possible Changes in Dates

First, in order to better understand how Charlie determines movement on a monthly basis, it is good to know what data sources he uses. First, Charlie will look at the performance of each category over recent months (visas used, movement on dates, etc.). In addition, Charlie will also use data given to him from USCIS on the number of cases pending at the National Benefits Center and at local offices (please do note that this data is often not totally accurate). Following an early April 2019 meeting at the National Benefits Center, Charlie will have additional data upon which to base the Final Action Dates in the May 2019 Visa Bulletin. If that data demonstrates shifts in the demand trends, Charlie may alter his projections for Final Action Date movements through the second half of the fiscal year.

Family-Based Preference Categories

According to Charlie, movements in the family-based preference categories will remain consistent with those in recent visa bulletins. However, he cautions that we should not get too accustomed to consistent rapid forward movement in these categories. The issue is that Charlie feels that the lack of apparent demand in many of these categories, which is causing the dates to advance more quickly than usual, may eventually result in a great amount of demand materializing all at once. If this were to occur, it could result in an abrupt retrogression and lead to volatility in some categories. In particular, there has been unusually rapid movement in FB-3 and FB-4 Philippines, each of which advance six months in the April 2019 Visa Bulletin. Those who practice heavily in the area of family-based immigration should consult “Section D. Final Action Date Movement” on page 8 in the visa bulletin for more details on Final Action Date movements.

Employment-Based Preference Categories

EB-1:

Reported demand levels across all countries in the EB-1 category remains high. In absolute terms, EB-1 has used more total visa numbers this fiscal year than any other employment-based category, with usage up to 25% higher than that of EB-2, and EB-3. The increased demand for EB-1 Worldwide numbers is negatively impacting EB-1 China and EB-1 India, which in the past have normally benefitted from the availability of otherwise unused EB-1 numbers from other countries.

According to Charlie, do not expect any movement for EB-1 China and EB-1 India Final Action Dates. Movement for both is only possible if EB-1 Worldwide demand slows down to a sufficient level that would allow otherwise unused numbers to be allocated to these countries. Charlie is watching the demand trends in this category very carefully. He cannot yet conclude whether this elevated demand represents a bubble that will be processed and then quickly dissipate, or whether it represents an ongoing consistent demand trend.

EB-2 Worldwide:

Charlie mentioned that only about half of the EB-2 Worldwide numbers for this fiscal year have been used, which is approximately where he would like that number to be. If the current demand trend continues, EB-2 Worldwide should remain current throughout the FY2019.

EB-2 and EB-3 India Remain Flipped:

According to Charlie the same movement patterns as the past couple of months are expected for the foreseeable future (he will update if this changes). EB-2 advanced only 3 days in the April Bulletin and EB-2 advanced a full month, surpassing EB-2 India.

EB-2 and EB-3 China:

In contrast to India, EB-2 China remains ahead of EB-3 China. In April 2019, EB-2 China advances three months to a Final Action Date of April 1, 2016, and EB-3 China advances three weeks to a Final Action Date of August 1, 2015. Like India, these trends are expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

EB-3 Philippines:

Rapid advancement continues for EB-3 Philippines in April, as the category leaps forward three months for a Final Action Date of March 1, 2018. Although a continuing lack of demand will create additional forward movement, be cautioned to not expect this rapid advancement to continue indefinitely.

Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

EB-1 for China and India Backlogged come April 1

Charlie Oppenheimer and the Department of State have determined that, because of increased usage of the EB-1 immigration visas that, come April 1 they will have to backlog this category for both India and China. Both have been backlogged to January 1, 2012 (a date for which there will be no demand). This action was taken to make sure that worldwide usage for this category stays within the numbers allowed.

Charlie did say that, if worldwide usage declines over the coming months he may be able to move these dates forward at some point this fiscal year. While the category will move forward, and may even come current, at the beginning of the next fiscal year (October 1, 2018), it is most likely that both India and China will continue to use their allotted share of EB-1 visas each year and there may end up being a more consistent backlog as there is for the EB-2 and EB-3 categories for India and China.

We will update you as soon as we receive any additional information.

Check in With Charlie Oppenheim on Immigrant Visa Movement

Unknown Charlie Oppenheim has released some more information on how he sees immigrant visa usage heading this year.

Overall his predictions are largely positive, with forward movement predicted in most categories. However, it should be noted that the new USCIS policy requiring transfer of employment-based I-485s to field offices for interview is expected to increase volatility in final action date movement in employment-based categories. These categories may actually see faster advancement of certain final action dates in the near term because fewer cases will be adjudicated, though once the transition is complete and the USCIS adjudications process has stabilized, there may be slower movement or retrogression in certain categories depending on usage.

In addition, if there are delayed adjudications, this would mean less visibility in demand for the State Department, which may result in more rapid forward movement (if Charlie does not know of pending cases, or projected usage, he cannot account for it in setting dates in the visa bulletin). The timeliness of the sharing of demand data by USCIS may also be impacted, as data will need to be pulled from multiple offices, as opposed to a more centralized approach to adjudications and data collection in the past.

The total number of visas used by USCIS as a whole during this fiscal year (or, at least, the first quarter of the fiscal year (October through December, 2017)) has decreased by several thousand as compared to FY2017. Charlie plans to advance categories as needed to generate sufficient demand to ensure usage of all available visa numbers, while trying not to do so too rapidly to avoid retrogression or unavailability.

In terms of specific categories:

Employment-Based Categories

EB-1 India and EB-1 China: The imposition of a final action date for EB-1 China and EB-1 India in July/August/September of 2017, created pent up demand which was largely adjudicated in October, November and December of 2017. However, so far, this fiscal year, EB-1 India and EB-1 China have already used 7,000 and 4,500 visa numbers, respectively. Charlie expects these categories to remain current for the coming months, but the imposition of a final action date in the summer remains likely if the current rate of demand continues. This could, however, be delayed if the transition of I-485s to USCIS Field Offices results in slowed processing of EB-1 China and EB-1 India cases in the coming months.

EB-2 Worldwide: This category should remain current for the foreseeable future.

EB-2 and EB-3 China: As stated in my last post, EB-2 China will advance just under two months to October 1, 2013, and EB-3 China will advance five months to September 15, 2014 in the February Visa Bulletin. According to Charlie this category will continue to advance at a rate of two to three months each bulletin, and may progress at a faster pace to generate demand. EB-3 China is predicted to advance at a pace of “(u)p to five months.” Charlie advised that EB-3 China will likely continue to advance at a faster pace than EB-2 China.

However, this may “flip” around, and EB-2 China may start progressing at. Faster rate. It is unclear whether this “flip” will occur in FY18 due to a combination of factors, including the availability of otherwise unused family-based preference numbers for China, and uncertainty as to how the transfer of employment-based I-485s to USCIS Field Offices will impact the speed of adjudications and the processing of upgrade and downgrade requests.

EB-2 India: Again, as stated in my previous post, EB-2 India will advance by less than one month in February from November 22, 2008, to December 8, 2008. Given heavy demand, the February Visa Bulletin predicts modest forward movement for EB-2 India at a rate of “(u)p to two weeks.”

EB-3 India: The final action date for EB-3 India will advance one month to December 1, 2006. The February Visa Bulletin predicts forward movement in this category at a pace of one to three months. Once the final action date advances beyond August 2007, Charlie will have very little visibility into demand. Once this occurs, there is the potential for rapid movement of the EB-3 India final action date to generate new demand. This may happen either late this fiscal year (August or September of this year) or next fiscal year.

EB-3 Philippines: This category will advance two weeks to March 1, 2016, in February. Demand in this category is comfortable, but not extremely high, which means there is less room to advance this date significantly. Charlie is watching this category closely since there have been spikes in demand, and he does not want to advance the final action date too quickly to avoid future retrogression. At this time, demand in this category is heavily weighted toward consular processing, but it is expected that USCIS filings could increase significantly in the coming months.

Family Based Categories

Final action date movement tends to be less erratic and more predictable in the family-based categories since Charlie has greater visibility into demand patterns based on the fact that these cases are primarily adjudicated at consular posts rather than domestically by USCIS. Charlie predicts FB-1 Worldwide advancing at a pace of up to one month, FB-2A Worldwide advancing three to five weeks, FB-3 Worldwide advancing up to five weeks, and FB-4 worldwide advancing up to three weeks.

FB-1 Philippines and FB-2B Philippines, which had retrogressed in December, will advance seven months and 21 days in February, respectively. Charlie will continue to monitor demand carefully in these categories over the next several months. Recent volatility is attributable to the lack of visibility of rescheduled appointments made by applicants through the Department of State’s Global Support System (GSS). Charlie is working closely with the post in Manila to obtain more accurate demand data, and he hopes that as a result, these dates will slowly advance and recover.

Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.