Update from Charlie Oppenheim on Immigrant Visa Availability

UnknownCharlie talked with the American Immigration Lawyers Association again at the end of March.  Here are some updates that he gave on potential movements of priority dates in the future.   To summarize:  EB-1 usage is high, not a lot of movement.  EB-2 usage is normal so steady movement.  For more details, see below.

Data Used By Charlie and Possible Changes in Dates

First, in order to better understand how Charlie determines movement on a monthly basis, it is good to know what data sources he uses.  First, Charlie will look at the performance of each category over recent months (visas used, movement on dates, etc.).  In addition, Charlie will also use data given to him from USCIS on the number of cases pending at the National Benefits Center and at local offices (please do note that this data is often not totally accurate).  Following an early April 2019 meeting at the National Benefits Center, Charlie will have additional data upon which to base the Final Action Dates in the May 2019 Visa Bulletin. If that data demonstrates shifts in the demand trends, Charlie may alter his projections for Final Action Date movements through the second half of the fiscal year.

Family-Based Preference Categories

According to Charlie, movements in the family-based preference categories will remain consistent with those in recent visa bulletins. However, he cautions that we should not get too accustomed to consistent rapid forward movement in these categories.  The issue is that Charlie feels that the lack of apparent demand in many of these categories, which is causing the dates to advance more quickly than usual, may eventually result in a great amount of demand materializing all at once. If this were to occur, it could result in an abrupt retrogression and lead to volatility in some categories.  In particular, there has been unusually rapid movement in FB-3 and FB-4 Philippines, each of which advance six months in the April 2019 Visa Bulletin. Those who practice heavily in the area of family-based immigration should consult “Section D. Final Action Date Movement” on page 8 in the visa bulletin for more details on Final Action Date movements.

Employment-Based Preference Categories

EB-1:

Reported demand levels across all countries in the EB-1 category remains high. In absolute terms, EB-1 has used more total visa numbers this fiscal year than any other employment-based category, with usage up to 25% higher than that of EB-2, and EB-3. The increased demand for EB-1 Worldwide numbers is negatively impacting EB-1 China and EB-1 India, which in the past have normally benefitted from the availability of otherwise unused EB-1 numbers from other countries.

According to Charlie, do not expect any movement for EB-1 China and EB-1 India Final Action Dates. Movement for both is only possible if EB-1 Worldwide demand slows down to a sufficient level that would allow otherwise unused numbers to be allocated to these countries.  Charlie is watching the demand trends in this category very carefully. He cannot yet conclude whether this elevated demand represents a bubble that will be processed and then quickly dissipate, or whether it represents an ongoing consistent demand trend.

EB-2 Worldwide:

Charlie mentioned that only about half of the EB-2 Worldwide numbers for this fiscal year have been used, which is approximately where he would like that number to be. If the current demand trend continues, EB-2 Worldwide should remain current throughout the FY2019.

EB-2 and EB-3 India Remain Flipped:

According to Charlie the same movement patterns as the past couple of months are expected for the foreseeable future (he will update if this changes).  EB-2 advanced only 3 days in the April Bulletin and EB-2 advanced a full month, surpassing EB-2 India.

EB-2 and EB-3 China:

In contrast to India, EB-2 China remains ahead of EB-3 China. In April 2019, EB-2 China advances three months to a Final Action Date of April 1, 2016, and EB-3 China advances three weeks to a Final Action Date of August 1, 2015. Like India, these trends are expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

EB-3 Philippines:

Rapid advancement continues for EB-3 Philippines in April, as the category leaps forward three months for a Final Action Date of March 1, 2018.  Although a continuing lack of demand will create additional forward movement, be cautioned to not expect this rapid advancement to continue indefinitely.

 

Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

March 2019 Visa Bulletin Released

UnknownRecently, the Department of State and Charlie Oppenheim released the new March 2019 Visa Bulletin.  Below is a summary of the movement in each category.

Family-Based cases:

 

F1: Final Action dates moved forward to about a month for most countries – October 22, 2011 for All Other Areas, China and India.  Mexico had no movement and stayed at August 1, 1997.  The Philippines moved forward about two weeks to April 1, 2007. Dates for Filing move to April 22, 2012 for All Areas, China and India, and stayed at September 22, 1999 for Mexico and moved to April 1, 2008 for the Philippines.

F2A: Final Action dates moved forward to a little over a month for most countries – January 8, 2017 for All Areas except Mexico, which moved to December 15, 2016. Dates for Filing moved forward slightly to December 8, 2017 for All Areas.

F2B: Final Action dates for most areas moved forward about three months – All Other Areas, China and India all moved to August 1, 2012. Mexico moved forward two months to September 22, 1997 and the Philippines only moved forward 3 weeks to July 22, 2007. Dates For Filing stayed at June 22, 2014 for All Other Areas, China and India.  Mexico moved forward about 4 months to February 8, 1998, and the Philippines moved forward about one week to January 22, 2008.

F3: Final Action dates moved forward only about 2 weeks for All Other Areas, India and China to September 8, 2006. Mexico moved forward about 3 weeks to January 15, 1996 and the Philippines moved forward almost 4.5 months to January 1, 1996. Dates for Filing moved forward about 1 month for All Other Areas, China and India to March 1, 2007. For Mexico, it stayed at June 8, 2000, and the Philippines moved forward 1 month to September 1, 1997.

F4: Final Action Dates moved forward 3 months to September 22, 2005 for All Other Areas and China. It moved forward about 2 weeks to July 8, 2004 for India. Mexico had no movement and stayed at February 8, 1998. The Philippines moved forward about 3 months to January 1, 1996. Dates for Filing mostly moved forward about 1 week (to June 22, 2006 for All Other Areas and China, to February 8, 2005 for India and to November 8, 1998 for Mexico). The Philippines moved forward about 1 month to January 8, 1997.

Employment-Based Categories

(Please note, because USCIS has consitently stated that employment-based categories will use Final Action Dates we will not discuss the Dates for Filing)

EB1: Moved forward about 1 month – to January 1, 2018 for most countries except India and China which moved to February 22, 2017.

EB2: Stayed Current for most countries except China (moved 3 months to January 1, 2016) and India (moved 3 days to April 9, 2009).

EB3: Stayed Current for most countries except China (moved about 1 week to July 8, 2015) and India (moved forward 1 month to May 22, 2009 – remaining ahead of the EB-2 date for India).  The Philippines moved forward 4 months to December 1, 2017.

Next month there should be another update from Charlie Oppenheim on future movement in all categories.  Please do contact me with any questions.

Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer, not a blog. Thank you.

 

February Visa Bulletin and Update from Charlie Oppenheim

UnknownThe February 2019 visa bulletin was recently released. Below is a summary of current dates as well as projections from Charlie Oppenheim on how various categories will move in the coming months. As a note, USCIS has stated that, for filing the I-485, you can use the Dates for Filing for Family based case, but must use the Final Action Dates for Employment based cases.

Family Based cases:

 

F1: Final Action dates moved forward to about a month for most countries – September 22, 2011 for All Other Areas, China and India and August 1, 1997 for Mexico and March 15, 2007 for the Philippines. Dates for Filing move similarly to April 8, 2012 for All Areas, China and India, and to September 22, 1999 for Mexico and March 15, 2008 for the Philippines. Update from Charlie: According to Charlie this category will move up to 5 weeks through May.

F2A: Final Action dates moved forward to about a month for most countries – December 1, 2016 for All Areas except Mexico, which moved to November 15, 2016. Dates for Filing stayed at December 1, 2017 for All Areas. Update from Charlie: According to Charlie this category will move up to 1 month through May.

F2B: Final Action dates for most areas only moved forward about two weeks – All Other Areas, China and India all moved to May 1, 2012. Mexico moved forward a little over 1 month to July 22, 1997 and the Philippines only moved forward a little more than 1 week to July 1, 2007. Dates For Filing all moved forward about 1 month – to June 22, 2014 for All Other Areas, China and India, to October 8, 1997 for Mexico and to January 15, 2008 for the Philippines. Update from Charlie: According to Charlie, this category will move forward about 2 months through May.

F3: Final Action dates moved forward only about 1 week for All Other Areas, India and China to August 22, 2006. Mexico stayed at December 22, 1995 and the Philippines moved forward about 1 month to August 22, 1995. Dates for Filing moved forward almost 1 month for All Other Areas, China and India to February 1m 2007. For Mexico, it moved forward about 1 month to June 8, 2000, and the Philippines moved forward 2 months to August 1, 1997. Update from Charlie: According to Charlie, this category will only move forward about 2 weeks through May of this year.

F4: Final Action Dates moved forward 1 month to June 22, 2005 for All Other Areas and China. It moved forward about 1 week to June 22, 2004 for India. Mexico had no movement and stayed at February 8, 1998. The Philippines moved forward about 1 month to October 1, 1995. Dates for Filing mostly moved forward about 1 month (to June 15, 2006 for All Other Areas and China, to February 1, 2005 for India and to November 1, 1998 for Mexico). The Philippines moved forward almost 6 months to December 8, 1997. Update from Charlie: According to Charlie, this category will move forward about 6 weeks through May of this year.

Employment Based Categories

(Please note, because USCIS has stated that employment based categories will use Final Action Dates we will not discuss the Dates for Filing)

EB1: Moved forward about 2 months – to December 1, 2017 for most countries except India and China which moved to February 8, 2017. Update from Charlie: Most countries will move forward about 2 months through May of this year. China and India will only move about 1 month forward during that period.

EB2: Stayed Current for most countries except China (moved 2 months to October 1, 2015) and India (moved 1 week to April 6, 2009). Update from Charlie: Most Countries will stay current for the foreseeable future. China will move forward about 3 months through May of this year and India will move forward only about 2 weeks during that period.

EB3: Stayed Current for most countries except China (moved about 1 month to July 1, 2015) and India (moved forward almost 2 months to April 22, 2009 – passing the EB-2 date for India). Update from Charlie: Most countries will stay current. China will move forward only about 3 weeks through May of this year and India will move forward about 3 months during that period. NOTE: India EB3 will most likely be ahead of EB-2 India for several months, depending on demand.

Please contact me with any questions.

Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer not of a blog. Thank you.

Charlie Oppenheim Updates his Predications for Movement of Immigration Visa Numbers

Charlie Oppenheim updated his predictions on the movement of immigrant visa numbers for the foreseeable future. I will detail some of the highlights below, however, please do remember that these are just predictions from Mr. Oppenheim and they can change depending on what the actual demand in any given category actually materializes.

EB-1

 

While Charlie previously thought there would not be movement forward until next year, it now appears that next month (December) should see forward movement on the Worldwide numbers as well as for India and China. Charlie is still not sure how far forward they will move, so we will need to wait for next month to see what happens. He does caution, however, that Worldwide numbers will not become current in the foreseeable future, and this will probably be the norm for at least the first half of the fiscal year.

EB-2 + EB-3

 

Based upon current demand, China numbers will continue to move forward as they did for the November bulletin. On the other hand, EB-3 for China is seeing high demand right now. At the moment EB-2 China is only about 2 weeks ahead of EB-3 China. It is possible that the EB-2 date will pass the EB-3 date soon. However, Charlie is not sure if the current EB-3 demand is based upon downgraded EB-2s. If this is the case, then the forward movement of EB-2 dates could be affected by this phenomena.

For India, the EB-2 numbers and EB-3 numbers held steady in November, and it is projected that there will be little , if any, advancement in December for the EB-2 numbers. However the EB-3 usage is lighter, and there should be forward movement of a few weeks (or even months) in December.

 

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p dir=”auto”>If you have any questions, please call or email me. Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

EB-1 for China and India Backlogged come April 1

Charlie Oppenheimer and the Department of State have determined that, because of increased usage of the EB-1 immigration visas that, come April 1 they will have to backlog this category for both India and China. Both have been backlogged to January 1, 2012 (a date for which there will be no demand). This action was taken to make sure that worldwide usage for this category stays within the numbers allowed.

Charlie did say that, if worldwide usage declines over the coming months he may be able to move these dates forward at some point this fiscal year. While the category will move forward, and may even come current, at the beginning of the next fiscal year (October 1, 2018), it is most likely that both India and China will continue to use their allotted share of EB-1 visas each year and there may end up being a more consistent backlog as there is for the EB-2 and EB-3 categories for India and China.

We will update you as soon as we receive any additional information.

Check in With Charlie Oppenheim on Immigrant Visa Movement

UnknownCharlie Oppenheim has released some more information on how he sees immigrant visa usage heading this year.

Overall his  predictions are largely positive, with forward movement predicted in most categories.  However, it should be noted that the new USCIS policy requiring transfer of employment-based I-485s to field offices for interview is expected to increase volatility in final action date movement in employment-based categories. These categories may actually see faster advancement of certain final action dates in the near term because fewer cases will be adjudicated, though once the transition is complete and the USCIS adjudications process has stabilized, there may be slower movement or retrogression in certain categories depending on usage.

In addition, if there are delayed adjudications, this would  mean less visibility in demand for the State Department, which may result in more rapid forward movement (if Charlie does not know of pending cases, or projected usage, he cannot account for it in setting dates in the visa bulletin). The timeliness of the sharing of demand data by USCIS may also be impacted, as data will need to be pulled from multiple offices, as opposed to a more centralized approach to adjudications and data collection in the past.

The total number of visas used by USCIS as a whole during this fiscal year (or, at least, the first quarter of the fiscal year (October through December, 2017)) has decreased by several thousand as compared to FY2017. Charlie plans to advance categories as needed to generate sufficient demand to ensure usage of all available visa numbers, while trying not to do so too rapidly to avoid retrogression or unavailability.

In terms of specific categories:

Employment-Based Categories

EB-1 India and EB-1 China:  The imposition of a final action date for EB-1 China and EB-1 India in July/August/September of 2017, created pent up demand which was largely adjudicated in October, November and December of 2017. However, so far, this fiscal year, EB-1 India and EB-1 China have already used 7,000 and 4,500 visa numbers, respectively. Charlie expects these categories to remain current for the coming months, but the imposition of a final action date in the summer remains likely if the current rate of demand continues. This could, however, be delayed if the transition of I-485s to USCIS Field Offices results in slowed processing of EB-1 China and EB-1 India cases in the coming months.

EB-2 Worldwide: This category should remain current for the foreseeable future.

EB-2 and EB-3 China:  As stated in my last post, EB-2 China will advance just under two months to October 1, 2013, and EB-3 China will advance five months to September 15, 2014 in the February Visa Bulletin. According to Charlie this category will continue to  advance at a rate of two to three months each bulletin, and may progress at a faster pace to generate demand. EB-3 China is predicted to advance at a pace of “(u)p to five months.” Charlie advised that EB-3 China will likely continue to advance at a faster pace than EB-2 China.

However, this may “flip” around, and EB-2 China may start progressing at. Faster rate.   It is unclear whether this “flip” will occur in FY18 due to a combination of factors, including the availability of otherwise unused family-based preference numbers for China, and uncertainty as to how the transfer of employment-based I-485s to USCIS Field Offices will impact the speed of adjudications and the processing of upgrade and downgrade requests.

EB-2 India:  Again, as stated in my previous post, EB-2 India will advance by less than one month in February from November 22, 2008, to December 8, 2008. Given heavy demand, the February Visa Bulletin predicts modest forward movement for EB-2 India at a rate of “(u)p to two weeks.”

EB-3 India:  The final action date for EB-3 India will advance one month to December 1, 2006. The February Visa Bulletin predicts forward movement in this category at a pace of one to three months. Once the final action date advances beyond August 2007, Charlie will have very little visibility into demand. Once this occurs, there is the potential for rapid movement of the EB-3 India final action date to generate new demand. This may happen either late this fiscal year (August or September of this year) or next fiscal year.

EB-3 Philippines:  This category will advance two weeks to March 1, 2016, in February. Demand in this category is comfortable, but not extremely high, which means there is less room to advance this date significantly. Charlie is watching this category closely since there have been spikes in demand, and he does not want to advance the final action date too quickly to avoid future retrogression. At this time, demand in this category is heavily weighted toward consular processing, but it is expected that USCIS filings could increase significantly in the coming months.

Family Based Categories

Final action date movement tends to be less erratic and more predictable in the family-based categories since Charlie has greater visibility into demand patterns based on the fact that these cases are primarily adjudicated at consular posts rather than domestically by USCIS. Charlie predicts FB-1 Worldwide advancing at a pace of up to one month, FB-2A Worldwide advancing three to five weeks, FB-3 Worldwide advancing up to five weeks, and FB-4 worldwide advancing up to three weeks.

FB-1 Philippines and FB-2B Philippines, which had retrogressed in December, will advance seven months and 21 days in February, respectively. Charlie will continue to monitor demand carefully in these categories over the next several months. Recent volatility is attributable to the lack of visibility of rescheduled appointments made by applicants through the Department of State’s Global Support System (GSS). Charlie is working closely with the post in Manila to obtain more accurate demand data, and he hopes that as a result, these dates will slowly advance and recover.

Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

February 2018 Visa Bulletin Released

UnknownUSCIS has released the February 2018 Visa Bulletin. While there is certainly some movement forward, the guidance given by Mr. Oppenheim last month is still in effect and has not changed. Relevant changes are listed below.

Employment Based Immigrant Visas:

EB-1A: Still current for all Countries

EB-2: Current for Worldwide. China is at October 1, 2013, a jump of almost two months. India is at December 8, 2008, forward movement of approximately 2 weeks.

EB-3: Current for Worldwide. China is at September 15, 2014 a jump of about 5 months. India is at December 1, 2006, forward movement of one month.

Family Based Immigrant Visas:

FB-1: Worldwide, China and India are at March 15, 2011. Mexico moved forward about 2 months to July 1, 1996. The Philippines moved forward about 7 months to August 1, 2005.

FB-2A: Worldwide, India, China and the Philippines moved forward 1 month to March 1, 2016. Mexico also moved forward about 1 month to February 1, 2016.

FB-2B: Worldwide, China and India all moved forward about one and half months to January 15, 2011. Mexico and the Philippines each moved forward about 2-3 weeks to September 8, 1996 and July 22, 2006 respectively.

FB-3: Worldwide, China and India all moved forward about 5 weeks to November 15, 2005. Mexico moved forward about 1 week to June 22, 1995 and the Philippines did not move, but stayed at March 15, 1995.

FB-4: Worldwide and China moved forward 1 month to July 22, 2004. India moved forward about 3 weeks to January 8, 2004. Mexico only moved forward 1 week to November 8, 1997. The Philippines moved forward about 1 month to October 1, 1994.

The above summarizes the movements for the mentioned categories. If you are interested in another category, please feel free to contact me directly.

Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.

January 2018 Visa Bulletin and Update from Charlie Oppenheim

UnknownThere have been some movements on the immigrant visa front, and some setbacks.  Below is an update on where things are and where they may be going.

Employment Based Immigration Visas:

EB-1:  Current across the Board for now, however according to Charlie, India and China may backlog by summer.

EB-2:  Current for Wordwide.  China progressed more than 1 month to August 8, 2013 and India progressed less than 1 month to November 22, 2008.  According to Charlie, China should continue to progress, but India will not move forward significantly in the near future, not even progressing into 2009 before the summer of 2018.

EB-3:  Current for Worldwide.  China moved forward more than 1 month to April 15, 2014.  India moved forward a couple of weeks to November 1, 2006.  The large demand in EB-3 for India has lessened somewhat so Charlie is hopeful that this category will continue to progress at the same rate over the upcoming months.  The Philippines moved forward about 1 month to February 15, 2016.  The large demand that had surfaced last month for the Philippines has lessened so, as with India, Charlie is hopeful of continued movement but will be monitoring demand closely.

Family Based Immigration Visas:

FB-1:  Most countries moved forward about 1 month to March 15, 2011.  The exceptions are Mexico (in 1996) and the Philippines (which is in 2005).  According to Charlie the Philippines, which recently had a large retrogression, will not be moving forward anytime soon.  Apparently already 40% of their immigration visas in this category are gone, whereas by the end of March they are usually at 54%.  Because they are already so close to that number, Charlie has had to slow down visa usage for them in this category (and the FB-2B category as well).  Because of movement forward in this category for worldwide number, Charlie is monitoring increased usage very closely.

FB-2A: Most Countries moved forward just over 1 month to February 1, 2016.  The only exception was Mexico which is at January 1, 2016.

FB-2B:  Most Countries moved forward just a couple weeks to December 1, 2010.  The only exceptions are the Philippines, which is in 2006 (see FB-1 for explanation) and Mexico which is in 1996.

FB-3:  Most Countries moved forward about 1 month to October 8, 2005. The only exceptions were Mexico and the Philippines, both of which are in 1995.

FB-4:  Most Countries moved forward a couple weeks to June 22, 2004.  India also moved forward a couple weeks to December 15, 2003.  Mexico is in 1997 and the Philippines is in 1994.  As India is moving forward in this category, Charlie is monitoring usage very closely in case increased demand surfaces.

Update from Charlie Oppenheim RE: Visa Bulletin Movement

UnknownCharlie Oppenheim recently released a new update on possible movement of various visa categories.  While for the most part there are no surprises, it is good to review what he says on your particular category to ensure you are not surprised in future months.  However, overall, it was a short update this month.

EB-1:  All countries should remain current for the foreseeable future (including China and India)

EB-2:  Worldwide should remain current for the foreseeable future.  India and China will have some forward movement but not much.

EB-3:  Worldwide should remain current for the foreseeable future.  India will most likely hold steady and China will move forward slowly.  Charlie has been paying close attention to China especially because of the number of EB-2 downgrades.  To prevent any retrogression, Charlie is only moving forward slowly in that category.  The Philippines should also progress slowly.

Family based:  Mostly modest movement forward.  The only surprise is FB-4 for India, which is having lower than expected demand and may move forward more quickly than Charlie previously thought.

 

November 2017 Visa Bulletin Released

UnknownThe Department of State released the November 2017 visa bulletin.  This bulletin includes some modest forward movement in most categories.

Family Based Immigrant Visa Numbers

USCIS has allowed people to base the filing of the Adjustment of Status applications on the Dates for Filing.  However those dates have not changes since last month.  As most people who file family based applications are not in the US, and the Final Action Dates have changed somewhat, I will discuss those dates below.

FB1:  Most countries moved forward a month to January 22, 2011.  Mexico also moved forward  a month to April 1, 1996.  The Philippines did not move from January 1, 2007.

FB2A:  All countries moved forward 1 month to November 15, 2015 except Mexico which moved forward a month to November 1, 2015

FB2B:  Most countries moved forward about 1 week to November 15, 2010.  The only exceptions were Mexico, which also moved forward about 1 week to July 22, 1996 and the Philippines which did not move from January 1, 2007

F3:  Most countries moved forward about 1 month to August 15, 2005.  Mexico moved forward about two weeks to May 8, 1995 and the Philippines moved forward about 1 week to March 1, 1995

F4:  Most countries moved forward about two weeks to May 22, 2004.  Mexico moved forward 1 week to October 8, 1997.  India moved forward about three weeks to October 22, 2003.  The Philippines moved forward about 1 week to June 8, 1994.

Employment Based Immigrant Visa Numbers

According to USCIS, all flings must use the Final Action Dates.  Therefore, all below dates are based upon that chart.

EB-1:  Remains current for all countries

EB-2:  Current for most countries except:  India, which moved forward about 1 month to October 8, 2008; and, China, which also moved forward about 1 month to June 15, 2013.

EB-3:  Most countries are current except: India, which did not move from October 15, 2006; China which forward about 1 month to  February 1, 2014; and, the Philippines, which moved forward about 1 month to January 15, 2016

Please remember, as always, this blog does not offer legal advice. If you need legal advice, consult with a lawyer instead of a blog. Thank you.